Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-10-31?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $627 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$626.71
$45.32
46.6¢ → 52¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 46.5¢ | $453.32 | $484.98 | +$31.66 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 47¢ | $94 | $104 | +$10 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $18.54 | $20.51 | +$1.97 | 53% 15968-14143 (30111) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $13.3 | $14.72 | +$1.42 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $1.16 | $1.26 | +$0.1 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $1.08 | $1.25 | +$0.17 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
Invested
$453.32
Value
$484.98
PnL
+$31.66
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
VeryLucky888Invested
$94
Value
$104
PnL
+$10
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$18.54
Value
$20.51
PnL
+$1.97
Record
53%
15968-14143 (30111)
Invested
$13.3
Value
$14.72
PnL
+$1.42
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$1.26
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.