Will FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda win on 2026-08-09?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 54¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$11.0K
-$87.81
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 aibaby | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $20.2K | $10.8K | -$85.02 | 53% 98-88 (186) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 46.5¢ | $95.3 | $94.3 | -$1 | 58% 40677-29411 (70088) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $42.73 | $41.82 | -$0.91 | 53% 15721-13896 (29617) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $41.36 | $40.48 | -$0.88 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
aibabyInvested
$20,174.87
Value
$10.8K
PnL
-$85.02
Record
53%
98-88 (186)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$95.3
Value
$94.3
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
40677-29411 (70088)
Invested
$42.73
Value
$41.82
PnL
-$0.91
Record
53%
15721-13896 (29617)
Invested
$41.36
Value
$40.48
PnL
-$0.88
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.