Young Boys Bern vs. FC Zurich: O/U 6.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$96.6

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 99.5¢

+67% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,508

Combined PnL-$101.44

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,117

Combined PnL+$198.04

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Overavg 53.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$25.85	53% 1154-1007 (2161)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 38.3¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$271.52	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$34.76	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$892.6	$944.95	+$52.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.3¢	$530.54	$512.94	-$17.59
FO foooool	Overavg 67¢	$1.2K	$996.12	-$231.09	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
RN1CTR	Underavg 45.7¢	$725.98	$754.46	+$28.47	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 61.4¢	$402.29	$565.12	+$162.82	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
fxwd12345	Overavg 69¢	$444.36	$441.14	-$3.22	69% 1525-701 (2226)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 58.6¢	$213.98	$109.54	-$104.44	50% 19439-19808 (39247)
poshposh	Overavg 62.9¢	$102.31	$98.37	-$3.94	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 71¢	$22.72	$22.56	-$0.16	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$10.54	$13.03	+$2.49	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

rabbitfoot1

Over

Invested

$1,797.94

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$25.85

Record

53%

1154-1007 (2161)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,200.77

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$271.52

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,423.13

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$34.76

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

Under$892.644.9¢+$52.36

Over$530.5454.3¢-$17.59

foooool

Over

Invested

$1,227.21

Value

$996.12

PnL

-$231.09

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$725.98

Value

$754.46

PnL

+$28.47

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$402.29

Value

$565.12

PnL

+$162.82

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$444.36

Value

$441.14

PnL

-$3.22

Record

69%

1525-701 (2226)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$213.98

Value

$109.54

PnL

-$104.44

Record

50%

19439-19808 (39247)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$102.31

Value

$98.37

PnL

-$3.94

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$22.72

Value

$22.56

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.54

Value

$13.03

PnL

+$2.49

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.