Spread: Young Boys Bern (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FC Zurich (60%) · FC Zurich at 59¢ · $29 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
FC Zurich
5
FC Zurich 60%
$29.36
$1.75
Research grade
NeutralFC Zurich at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool<$100 | FC Zurichavg 78¢ | $15.6 | $17.8 | +$2.2 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | FC Zurichavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.75 | -$0.2 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FC Zurichavg 99.8¢ | $4.98 | $4.74 | -$0.24 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Young Boys Bernavg 5¢ | $1.94 | $1.94 | +$0 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Young Boys Bernavg 21¢ | $0.14 | $0.13 | -$0.01 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
Invested
$15.6
Value
$17.8
PnL
+$2.2
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.75
PnL
-$0.2
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.74
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.94
Value
$1.94
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.