Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Young Boys Bern, while the market favors FC Zurich (90%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Young Boys Bern (-2.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Young Boys Bern (60%) · Young Boys Bern at 10.0¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Young Boys Bern
5
Young Boys Bern 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$24.76
11.3¢ → 10¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYoung Boys Bern at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors FC Zurich 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | FC Zurichavg 94.6¢ | $1.2K | $995.2 | -$202.79 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
| └ FC Zurich leg | FC Zurichavg 94.6¢ | $885.69 | $786.24 | -$99.45 | |
| └ Young Boys Bern leg | Young Boys Bernavg 38.9¢ | $508.2 | $208.96 | -$103.34 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Young Boys Bernavg 23.3¢ | $122.91 | $87.48 | -$35.43 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Young Boys Bernavg 4.8¢ | $43.87 | $61.09 | +$17.22 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
FO foooool<$100 | FC Zurichavg 81¢ | $32.38 | $26.78 | -$5.6 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FC Zurichavg 77¢ | $6.26 | $6.45 | +$0.19 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Young Boys Bernavg 22¢ | $4.22 | $3.07 | -$1.15 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
Invested
$1,197.99
Value
$995.2
PnL
-$202.79
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Both legs:
Invested
$122.91
Value
$87.48
PnL
-$35.43
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Invested
$43.87
Value
$61.09
PnL
+$17.22
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$32.38
Value
$26.78
PnL
-$5.6
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.26
Value
$6.45
PnL
+$0.19
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$4.22
Value
$3.07
PnL
-$1.15
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.