Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Zurich win on 2026-11-01?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 30¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1

Yes71¢No29¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$391.07

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 29.5¢

-66% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,244

Combined PnL+$403.8

No9 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares7,009

Combined PnL-$12.72

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JhonAlexanderHinestroza	Yesavg 64¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$355.12	57% 1146-852 (1998)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 87.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$34.94	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 89¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$4.93	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 90¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$29.64	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
GO gollaza	Yesavg 71.1¢	$701.76	$713.5	+$11.74	66% 3084-1607 (4691)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$225.02	$267.94	+$42.92	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13¢	$29.16	$161.78	+$132.62
└ No leg	Noavg 51.2¢	$195.86	$106.16	-$89.7
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 89¢	$190.95	$201.92	+$10.97	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
BE BetzikoARB<$100	Noavg 34.1¢	$42.13	$141.56	-$0.86	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.7¢	$13.18	$112.28	-$1.19
└ No leg	Noavg 34.1¢	$28.95	$29.28	+$0.33
FO foooool	Yesavg 7.9¢	$61.52	$100.96	+$39.45	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
PO poposubCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$59.16	$48.29	-$10.87	45% 2069-2501 (4570)
RE retarbCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$23.75	$19.46	-$4.29	48% 4253-4544 (8797)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$17.68	$17.73	+$0.05	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$45.79	$17.1	-$2.51	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$6.48	$6.03	-$0.45	67% 23462-11817 (35279)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$13.91	$5.4	-$8.51	58% 10657-7637 (18294)

JhonAlexanderHinestroza

Yes

Invested

$2,737

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$355.12

Record

57%

1146-852 (1998)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$2,366.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$34.94

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,994.64

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$4.93

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,719.83

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$29.64

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

gollaza

Yes

Invested

$701.76

Value

$713.5

PnL

+$11.74

Record

66%

3084-1607 (4691)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$225.02

Value

$267.94

PnL

+$42.92

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Both legs:

Yes$29.1613¢+$132.62

No$195.8651.2¢-$89.7

CannaeCTR

Invested

$190.95

Value

$201.92

PnL

+$10.97

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

BetzikoARB<$100

Invested

$42.13

Value

$141.56

PnL

-$0.86

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

Both legs:

Invested

$61.52

Value

$100.96

PnL

+$39.45

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

poposubCTR<$100

Invested

$59.16

Value

$48.29

PnL

-$10.87

Record

45%

2069-2501 (4570)

retarbCTR<$100

Invested

$23.75

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$4.29

Record

48%

4253-4544 (8797)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$17.68

Value

$17.73

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.79

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$2.51

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$6.48

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$0.45

Record

67%

23462-11817 (35279)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$13.91

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$8.51

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.