Will Young Boys Bern vs. FC Zurich end in a draw?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$1.3K
$54.95
83¢ → 88.5¢
+7% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 85.7¢ | $486.89 | $494.47 | +$7.58 | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $370.33 | $343.65 | +$6.67 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 poshposh | Noavg 76.7¢ | $158.69 | $177.87 | +$19.18 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 77.2¢ | $92.6 | $103.2 | +$10.6 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 77.1¢ | $65.5 | $73.1 | +$8.03 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $50.74 | $51.33 | +$0.59 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
RE retarb<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $15.84 | $18.92 | +$3.08 | 48% 4253-4544 (8797) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $11.57 | $11.18 | -$0.39 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.7¢ | $3.95 | $3.57 | -$0.39 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
Invested
$486.89
Value
$494.47
PnL
+$7.58
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
VeryLucky888Invested
$370.33
Value
$343.65
PnL
+$6.67
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
poshposhInvested
$158.69
Value
$177.87
PnL
+$19.18
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$92.6
Value
$103.2
PnL
+$10.6
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Invested
$65.5
Value
$73.1
PnL
+$8.03
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
Invested
$50.74
Value
$51.33
PnL
+$0.59
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$18.92
PnL
+$3.08
Record
48%
4253-4544 (8797)
Invested
$11.57
Value
$11.18
PnL
-$0.39
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$0.39
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.