Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC St. Gallen 1879 win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 27¢ · $345 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 57%
$345.32
-$19.51
47¢ → 26.5¢
-44% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $124.3 | $119.12 | -$3.88 | 53% 15968-14143 (30111) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Yesavg 71.1¢ | $86.54 | $88.27 | +$1.74 | 57% 1733-1295 (3028) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $49.63 | $49.3 | -$0.33 | 50% 10883-10699 (21582) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $37.74 | $39.96 | +$1.11 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 46.2¢ | $51.65 | $28.01 | -$18.94 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $18.8 | $18.4 | +$0.6 | 50% 24920-24613 (49533) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $2.06 | $2.27 | +$0.21 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
Invested
$124.3
Value
$119.12
PnL
-$3.88
Record
53%
15968-14143 (30111)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$86.54
Value
$88.27
PnL
+$1.74
Record
57%
1733-1295 (3028)
Invested
$49.63
Value
$49.3
PnL
-$0.33
Record
50%
10883-10699 (21582)
Invested
$37.74
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$1.11
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$51.65
Value
$28.01
PnL
-$18.94
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$18.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
24920-24613 (49533)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.06
Value
$2.27
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.