FC Sion vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 51¢ · $881 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$880.66
$87.87
45¢ → 51¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 45¢ | $659.3 | $747.21 | +$87.91 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 98.3¢ | $212.11 | $126.49 | -$85.62 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 98.3¢ | $187.11 | $97.09 | -$90.02 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41.7¢ | $25 | $29.4 | +$4.4 | |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $4.71 | $4.52 | -$0.18 | 74% 2423-864 (3287) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $2.29 | $2.44 | +$0.15 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
RN1Invested
$659.3
Value
$747.21
PnL
+$87.91
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$212.11
Value
$126.49
PnL
-$85.62
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
Both legs:
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$4.71
Value
$4.52
PnL
-$0.18
Record
74%
2423-864 (3287)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.29
Value
$2.44
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.