FC Luzern vs. FC Sion: O/U 3.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
$9.1K
$65.35
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR fraagen | Overavg 50.4¢ | $5.3K | $5.5K | +$217.25 | 45% 55-67 (122) |
 us391CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$57.25 | 51% 1683-1647 (3330) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$89.48 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $53.5 | $50.82 | -$2.68 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $50 | $47.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
Invested
$5,269
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$217.25
Record
45%
55-67 (122)
us391CTRInvested
$1,870.04
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$57.25
Record
51%
1683-1647 (3330)
Invested
$1,789.5
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$89.48
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$53.5
Value
$50.82
PnL
-$2.68
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$47.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.