Will FC Sion win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.4K
-$168.9
83.4¢ → 90.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 88.5¢ | $736.13 | $707.2 | -$28.93 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $503.79 | $476.13 | -$27.66 | 57% 1746-1303 (3049) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $210.36 | $103.07 | -$107.29 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $57.76 | $54.33 | -$3.43 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $32.63 | $31.05 | -$1.58 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
Invested
$736.13
Value
$707.2
PnL
-$28.93
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
oieshfn345Invested
$503.79
Value
$476.13
PnL
-$27.66
Record
57%
1746-1303 (3049)
Invested
$210.36
Value
$103.07
PnL
-$107.29
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
RN1<$100Invested
$57.76
Value
$54.33
PnL
-$3.43
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Invested
$32.63
Value
$31.05
PnL
-$1.58
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.