Will FC Luzern win on 2026-10-31?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$74.35
67.7¢ → 91.5¢
+35% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $666.79 | $719.25 | +$52.46 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $517.15 | $366.67 | -$150.48 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38¢ | $149.64 | $352.58 | +$202.94 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 64.6¢ | $452.93 | $601.59 | +$148.66 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $751.36 | $523.34 | -$228.02 | 57% 1746-1303 (3049) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $80.89 | $88.98 | +$8.09 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $74.56 | $65.14 | -$9.42 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $27.96 | $28.43 | +$0.47 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $9.47 | $15.4 | +$5.93 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12.14 | $13.36 | +$1.21 | 50% 24924-24614 (49538) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $9.96 | $9.51 | -$0.45 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.23 | -$0.08 | 54% 6304-5335 (11639) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $1.17 | $0.43 | -$0.74 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$666.79
Value
$719.25
PnL
+$52.46
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Both legs:
Invested
$452.93
Value
$601.59
PnL
+$148.66
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
oieshfn345Invested
$751.36
Value
$523.34
PnL
-$228.02
Record
57%
1746-1303 (3049)
Invested
$80.89
Value
$88.98
PnL
+$8.09
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
Invested
$74.56
Value
$65.14
PnL
-$9.42
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$27.96
Value
$28.43
PnL
+$0.47
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$9.47
Value
$15.4
PnL
+$5.93
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$12.14
Value
$13.36
PnL
+$1.21
Record
50%
24924-24614 (49538)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$9.51
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.23
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
6304-5335 (11639)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$0.74
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.