Will FC Lugano win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 64¢ · $556 held · ends Nov 1

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$556.39

Combined PnL

-$0.53

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 63.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$521.36

Total Shares815

Combined PnL+$0.53

No3 traders

Total Value$35.03

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$1.07

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fraj0la	Yesavg 64¢	$500	$500	+$0	63% 234-135 (369)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$26.6	$25.2	-$1.05	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$14.73	$14.96	+$0.23	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$8.04	$8.03	-$0.02	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$13.5	$6.4	+$0.3	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.8	-$0	50% 24945-24626 (49571)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

234-135 (369)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$26.6

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$1.05

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.73

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.04

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.