Lausanne-Sport vs. FC Thun: O/U 5.5
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 71¢ · $173 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
2
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$173.4
$24.17
Research grade
NeutralOver at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $259.16 | $113.92 | -$145.24 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 71¢ | $72.42 | $72.42 | +$0 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 88¢ | $1.2K | $41.5 | -$145.24 | |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $35 | $59.17 | +$24.17 | 76% 4147-1304 (5451) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $0.31 | $0.31 | +$0 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
Invested
$259.16
Value
$113.92
PnL
-$145.24
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Both legs:
Invested
$35
Value
$59.17
PnL
+$24.17
Record
76%
4147-1304 (5451)
Invested
$0.31
Value
$0.31
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.