Will Lausanne-Sport win on 2026-11-01?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$478.33

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,179

Combined PnL-$510.78

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,809

Combined PnL+$32.45

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 91.1¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$621.2	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 98.6¢	$694.36	$681.4	-$12.96	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 84.9¢	$630.13	$649.04	+$18.91	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
PA pauleta23CTR	Yesavg 18.7¢	$158.24	$309.52	+$151.28	67% 23467-11821 (35288)
poshposh	Noavg 82.7¢	$251.9	$277.63	+$25.73	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$80.1	$80.1	+$0	62% 1191-725 (1916)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 4.1¢	$3.3	$69.69	+$66.39	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
RE retarbCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$21.48	$27.74	+$11.6	48% 4253-4544 (8797)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$49.5	$27.38	-$22.13	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 62¢	$8.38	$8.51	+$0.13	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
RO Rocko33<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$7.37	$8.33	+$0.96	63% 1200-693 (1893)
RO Rocky31CTR	Yesavg 95¢	$110.84	$5.14	-$96.14	74% 1682-594 (2276)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$3.25	$4.05	+$0.8	54% 6427-5413 (11840)
RN1<$100	Noavg 19.3¢	$3.54	$1.83	-$1.71	54% 57170-49418 (106588)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,737.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$621.2

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$694.36

Value

$681.4

PnL

-$12.96

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$630.13

Value

$649.04

PnL

+$18.91

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

pauleta23CTR

Yes

Invested

$158.24

Value

$309.52

PnL

+$151.28

Record

67%

23467-11821 (35288)

poshposh

Invested

$251.9

Value

$277.63

PnL

+$25.73

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.1

Value

$80.1

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$69.69

PnL

+$66.39

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

retarbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.48

Value

$27.74

PnL

+$11.6

Record

48%

4253-4544 (8797)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.5

Value

$27.38

PnL

-$22.13

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$8.38

Value

$8.51

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Rocko33<$100

Invested

$7.37

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$0.96

Record

63%

1200-693 (1893)

Rocky31CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.84

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$96.14

Record

74%

1682-594 (2276)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.25

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

6427-5413 (11840)

RN1<$100

Invested

$3.54

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$1.71

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.