Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Vaduz win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 37¢ · $202 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$201.72
-$0.46
36.1¢ → 37¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 36.1¢ | $162.4 | $161.82 | -$0.58 | 53% 15858-14039 (29897) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.8¢ | $31.62 | $31.76 | +$0.14 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $4.1 | $3.96 | -$0.14 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $3.5 | $3.6 | +$0.1 | 58% 41266-29916 (71182) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $1.56 | $0.58 | +$0.02 | 38% 365-593 (958) |
Invested
$162.4
Value
$161.82
PnL
-$0.58
Record
53%
15858-14039 (29897)
Invested
$31.62
Value
$31.76
PnL
+$0.14
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.1
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$0.14
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.6
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
41266-29916 (71182)
Invested
$1.56
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.02
Record
38%
365-593 (958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.