Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 1 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Grasshopper Club Zurich win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 31¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 11%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
$510.28
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.7K | +$544.36 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $1.0K | $942.06 | -$102.95 | 57% 1733-1295 (3028) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.9¢ | $759.91 | $699 | -$60.92 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $285.1 | $243.06 | -$42.04 | |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 62¢ | $303.37 | $303.37 | -$2.45 | 47% 2516-2814 (5330) |
 poshposh | Noavg 74.2¢ | $263.33 | $246.79 | -$16.53 | 59% 10226-7214 (17440) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 75.3¢ | $245.74 | $230.32 | -$15.42 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
BE Betziko | Noavg 72.4¢ | $123.15 | $118.15 | -$5 | 54% 6294-5328 (11622) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $76.16 | $77.84 | +$1.68 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $49.53 | $53.04 | +$3.51 | 50% 10883-10699 (21582) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $5.52 | $5.56 | +$0.04 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $4.43 | $4.52 | +$0.09 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
Invested
$1,126.79
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$544.36
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$1,045.01
Value
$942.06
PnL
-$102.95
Record
57%
1733-1295 (3028)
Both legs:
Invested
$303.37
Value
$303.37
PnL
-$2.45
Record
47%
2516-2814 (5330)
poshposhInvested
$263.33
Value
$246.79
PnL
-$16.53
Record
59%
10226-7214 (17440)
Invested
$245.74
Value
$230.32
PnL
-$15.42
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
Invested
$123.15
Value
$118.15
PnL
-$5
Record
54%
6294-5328 (11622)
Invested
$76.16
Value
$77.84
PnL
+$1.68
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
Invested
$49.53
Value
$53.04
PnL
+$3.51
Record
50%
10883-10699 (21582)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$5.56
PnL
+$0.04
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.43
Value
$4.52
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
CTRYes — $1.7K
oieshfn345
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
No — $303.37
poshposh
No — $246.79
topdogbigboi
No — $230.32
Betziko
No — $118.15
GoalLineGhost
No — $77.84
foooool
No — $53.04
LuckyLoo
No — $5.56
HRTrading
No — $4.52