Grasshopper Club Zurich vs. FC Vaduz: Both Teams to Score

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $921 held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$921.35

Combined PnL

$201.23

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$921.35

Total Shares1,050

Combined PnL+$205.47

No3 traders

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$4.24

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Yesavg 67.9¢	$433.16	$637.61	+$204.45	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 68.5¢	$274.18	$271.99	-$2.19	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 72.7¢	$8.54	$11.74	+$3.2	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 32.7¢	$2.29	$0	-$2.29	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.05	$0	-$1.05	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$0.9	$0	-$0.9	50% 33443-33004 (66447)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$433.16

Value

$637.61

PnL

+$204.45

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$274.18

Value

$271.99

PnL

-$2.19

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.54

Value

$11.74

PnL

+$3.2

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

PnL

-$2.29

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.9

Value

PnL

-$0.9

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.