Will FK Zeleznicar Pancevo win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 88¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$1.4K
-$15.92
83.5¢ → 87.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 83.7¢ | $607.12 | $565.61 | -$41.51 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 85.7¢ | $451.59 | $438.11 | -$13.48 | 59% 44606-31005 (75611) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 81¢ | $293.05 | $316.84 | +$23.79 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $54.71 | $59.76 | +$5.04 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $23.4 | $27 | +$3.6 | 54% 55713-47799 (103512) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $3.5 | $7.7 | +$4.2 | 50% 32772-32329 (65101) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $7.71 | $7.57 | -$0.13 | 53% 3050-2712 (5762) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $2 | $4.85 | +$2.85 | 52% 5873-5506 (11379) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $1.45 | $1.17 | -$0.28 | 54% 6046-5125 (11171) |
Invested
$607.12
Value
$565.61
PnL
-$41.51
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$451.59
Value
$438.11
PnL
-$13.48
Record
59%
44606-31005 (75611)
Invested
$293.05
Value
$316.84
PnL
+$23.79
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$54.71
Value
$59.76
PnL
+$5.04
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$23.4
Value
$27
PnL
+$3.6
Record
54%
55713-47799 (103512)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$7.7
PnL
+$4.2
Record
50%
32772-32329 (65101)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.71
Value
$7.57
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
3050-2712 (5762)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$2.85
Record
52%
5873-5506 (11379)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$0.28
Record
54%
6046-5125 (11171)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.