Will FK Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $309 held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$308.8

Combined PnL

$5.18

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$299.41

Total Shares336

Combined PnL+$6.52

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.38

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$1.34

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 58.9¢	$83.34	$139.24	+$55.89	59% 44606-31005 (75611)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 95.5¢	$163.88	$111.78	-$52.1	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 55¢	$58.12	$48.4	+$2.73	58% 40754-29472 (70226)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$3.54	$5.26	+$1.72	54% 55713-47799 (103512)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.1	-$0.1	54% 6046-5125 (11171)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$4.76	$1.76	-$3	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.22	$0.27	+$0.05	50% 32772-32329 (65101)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$83.34

Value

$139.24

PnL

+$55.89

Record

59%

44606-31005 (75611)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$163.88

Value

$111.78

PnL

-$52.1

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$58.12

Value

$48.4

PnL

+$2.73

Record

58%

40754-29472 (70226)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.54

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$1.72

Record

54%

55713-47799 (103512)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$3

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

32772-32329 (65101)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.