Will FK Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac vs. FK Zeleznicar Pancevo end in a draw?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $937 held · ended Oct 28

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$937.38

Combined PnL

-$72.1

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 88.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$556.16

Total Shares772

Combined PnL-$130.27

Yes1 trader

Total Value$96.95

Total Shares388

Combined PnL+$58.17

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 89¢	$679.07	$549.36	-$129.71	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$282.36	$241.12	-$41.24	59% 44606-31005 (75611)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.6¢	$185.73	$146.28	-$39.45
└ No leg	Noavg 90.2¢	$96.63	$94.84	-$1.79
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$38.78	$96.95	+$58.17	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 90¢	$34.7	$43.16	+$8.46	54% 55713-47799 (103512)
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$27	$21.6	-$5.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$7.7	$21.56	+$13.86
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$7.35	$6.8	-$0.55	54% 6046-5125 (11171)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$679.07

Value

$549.36

PnL

-$129.71

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$282.36

Value

$241.12

PnL

-$41.24

Record

59%

44606-31005 (75611)

Both legs:

Yes$185.7314.6¢-$39.45

No$96.6390.2¢-$1.79

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.78

Value

$96.95

PnL

+$58.17

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$34.7

Value

$43.16

PnL

+$8.46

Record

54%

55713-47799 (103512)

Both legs:

No$2790¢-$5.4

Yes$7.710¢+$13.86

Betziko<$100

Invested

$7.35

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.