Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Partizan Belgrade end in a draw?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $159 held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$158.71

Combined PnL

$1.24

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$147

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$1.36

Yes4 traders

Total Value$11.71

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$0.12

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$88.66	$91.13	+$2.47	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 77¢	$56.98	$55.87	-$1.11	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$8.54	$8.37	-$0.17	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.5	$1.53	+$0.03	50% 32772-32330 (65102)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.1	$1.07	-$0.04	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.7	$0.75	+$0.05	54% 6046-5125 (11171)

RN1<$100

Invested

$88.66

Value

$91.13

PnL

+$2.47

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$56.98

Value

$55.87

PnL

-$1.11

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

32772-32330 (65102)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.