Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club end in a draw?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 75¢ · $344 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$343.56
-$2.56
75.1¢ → 74.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 75¢ | $150 | $147 | -$3 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 75.7¢ | $101.48 | $97.87 | -$3.6 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $68.89 | $72.13 | +$3.24 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $10.8 | $10.95 | +$0.15 | 59% 10176-7169 (17345) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $6.05 | $6.63 | +$0.58 | 58% 18658-13715 (32373) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $5.2 | $5.3 | +$0.1 | 51% 6007-5697 (11704) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.68 | -$0.03 | 48% 2393-2622 (5015) |
0xheavy888Invested
$150
Value
$147
PnL
-$3
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$101.48
Value
$97.87
PnL
-$3.6
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$68.89
Value
$72.13
PnL
+$3.24
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
poshposh<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
59%
10176-7169 (17345)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$6.63
PnL
+$0.58
Record
58%
18658-13715 (32373)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
6007-5697 (11704)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
2393-2622 (5015)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.