Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (88%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 88%
$1.9K
-$163.28
85.3¢ → 100¢
+17% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 92.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$6.62 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 74.2¢ | $457.92 | $375.46 | -$82.46 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 63¢ | $126 | $185 | -$3 | 55% 7057-5659 (12716) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 92¢ | $182.11 | $111.64 | -$70.47 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $50.75 | $51.6 | -$0.83 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 74.7¢ | $12.53 | $12.58 | +$0.06 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $5 | $3.87 | -$1.13 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.4¢ | $15.47 | $3.39 | -$12.08 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
Invested
$1,107.46
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$6.62
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$457.92
Value
$375.46
PnL
-$82.46
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
0xheavy888Invested
$126
Value
$185
PnL
-$3
Record
55%
7057-5659 (12716)
Invested
$182.11
Value
$111.64
PnL
-$70.47
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$50.75
Value
$51.6
PnL
-$0.83
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
Invested
$12.53
Value
$12.58
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
RN1<$100Invested
$5
Value
$3.87
PnL
-$1.13
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$15.47
Value
$3.39
PnL
-$12.08
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.