Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$1.2K
$48.83
84.2¢ → 100¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO Rocky31 | Overavg 84¢ | $687.49 | $766.47 | +$78.98 | 73% 1546-559 (2105) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 84.5¢ | $338 | $399.8 | -$6 | 55% 7057-5659 (12716) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 8.5¢ | $61.81 | $40.64 | -$21.17 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 84.6¢ | $19.24 | $21.48 | +$2.24 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $4.2 | -$0.1 | 47% 2270-2553 (4823) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 5.5¢ | $1.45 | $1.46 | +$0.01 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 14.6¢ | $3.18 | $1.09 | -$2.09 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $3.05 | $0.01 | -$3.04 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
Invested
$687.49
Value
$766.47
PnL
+$78.98
Record
73%
1546-559 (2105)
0xheavy888Invested
$338
Value
$399.8
PnL
-$6
Record
55%
7057-5659 (12716)
Invested
$61.81
Value
$40.64
PnL
-$21.17
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$19.24
Value
$21.48
PnL
+$2.24
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
47%
2270-2553 (4823)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.46
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.18
Value
$1.09
PnL
-$2.09
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$3.04
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.