Spread: Al Ahli Saudi Club (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Al Shabab Saudi Club (83%) · Al Shabab Saudi Club at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Al Shabab Saudi Club
6
Al Shabab Saudi Club 83%
$2.8K
$360.6
75.8¢ → 99.5¢
+31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Shabab Saudi Club at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 71.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$289.13 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 84.1¢ | $884.39 | $946 | +$61.61 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
 0xheavy888 | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 70.5¢ | $290 | $396.83 | +$16.86 | 55% 7057-5659 (12716) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 70¢ | $14.83 | $14.89 | +$0.22 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Al Shabab Saudi Clubavg 69.5¢ | $6.95 | $7.65 | +$0.7 | 47% 2270-2553 (4823) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Al Ahli Saudi Clubavg 12.5¢ | $9.17 | $1.25 | -$7.92 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
Invested
$1,133.86
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$289.13
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$884.39
Value
$946
PnL
+$61.61
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
0xheavy888Invested
$290
Value
$396.83
PnL
+$16.86
Record
55%
7057-5659 (12716)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.83
Value
$14.89
PnL
+$0.22
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$6.95
Value
$7.65
PnL
+$0.7
Record
47%
2270-2553 (4823)
Invested
$9.17
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$7.92
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.