Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-10-30?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 55¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$131.35

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 54.5¢

-20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,073

Combined PnL+$60.64

Yes7 traders

Total Value$461.18

Total Shares1,573

Combined PnL-$191.99

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 52.3¢	$481.18	$544.6	+$63.42	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.3¢	$245.41	$333.17	+$87.76
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.3¢	$235.77	$211.43	-$24.34
38 38791873984189	Noavg 63.7¢	$474.44	$528.66	+$54.22	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
0xheavy888	Noavg 74.1¢	$434.07	$419.6	-$14.47	55% 7057-5659 (12716)
CA Cannae	Noavg 70¢	$314.7	$319.15	+$4.45	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 48.2¢	$485.11	$291.75	-$193.36	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 71.4¢	$144.15	$143.42	-$0.73	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 28.9¢	$139.31	$139.99	+$0.68	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 52¢	$99.81	$103.69	+$3.88	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$74.88	$78.48	+$3.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45¢	$24.93	$25.21	+$0.28
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 54.9¢	$71.54	$88.72	+$17.18	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$13.25	$12.81	-$0.44	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$6.15	$7.71	+$1.56	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$3.8	$4.55	+$0.75	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.5¢	$4.35	$2.9	-$1.45	58% 18584-13649 (32233)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.48	+$0.28	47% 2270-2553 (4823)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$481.18

Value

$544.6

PnL

+$63.42

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

Both legs:

No$245.4152.3¢+$87.76

Yes$235.7732.3¢-$24.34

38791873984189

Invested

$474.44

Value

$528.66

PnL

+$54.22

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

0xheavy888

Invested

$434.07

Value

$419.6

PnL

-$14.47

Record

55%

7057-5659 (12716)

Cannae

Invested

$314.7

Value

$319.15

PnL

+$4.45

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$485.11

Value

$291.75

PnL

-$193.36

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$144.15

Value

$143.42

PnL

-$0.73

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.31

Value

$139.99

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$99.81

Value

$103.69

PnL

+$3.88

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Both legs:

No$74.8852¢+$3.6

Yes$24.9345¢+$0.28

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$71.54

Value

$88.72

PnL

+$17.18

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.25

Value

$12.81

PnL

-$0.44

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.15

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$1.56

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$1.45

Record

58%

18584-13649 (32233)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.28

Record

47%

2270-2553 (4823)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.