Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 5.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.1K
-$4.81
80.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 84.8¢ | $732.36 | $742.46 | +$10.1 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
PA pauleta23 | Overavg 99¢ | $38.24 | $229.87 | +$191.63 | 67% 23216-11620 (34836) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Underavg 30.4¢ | $25.65 | $72.51 | +$46.86 | 49% 671-693 (1364) |
 bernardi22 | Overavg 91.7¢ | $299.99 | $45.82 | -$254.17 | 56% 1258-978 (2236) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $43.86 | $43.86 | -$0 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $4.33 | $5.1 | +$0.77 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
Invested
$732.36
Value
$742.46
PnL
+$10.1
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
Invested
$38.24
Value
$229.87
PnL
+$191.63
Record
67%
23216-11620 (34836)
Invested
$25.65
Value
$72.51
PnL
+$46.86
Record
49%
671-693 (1364)
bernardi22Invested
$299.99
Value
$45.82
PnL
-$254.17
Record
56%
1258-978 (2236)
Invested
$43.86
Value
$43.86
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$4.33
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$0.77
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.