Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 50¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 29

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

$70.75

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 50¢

+9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,669

Combined PnL+$18.09

Under2 traders

Total Value$815.65

Total Shares1,483

Combined PnL+$52.66

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1ARB<$100	Overavg 48.3¢	$13.4K	$13.0K	-$428.82	53% 1123-985 (2108)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.3¢	$7.9K	$7.4K	-$628.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.5¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$199.55
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 52.7¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$52.27	50% 24694-24376 (49070)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.7¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$141.01
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.7¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$88.74
ComingBack	Overavg 46¢	$1.0K	$978.3	-$21.74	61% 3900-2449 (6349)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 45.6¢	$2.2K	$665.94	+$40	58% 41239-29904 (71143)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$640.87	$660.15	+$22.02	55% 6994-5612 (12606)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.5¢	$364	$360	-$4
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.7¢	$276.87	$300.16	+$26.02
FO forecastication4	Underavg 51¢	$469.2	$506	+$41.4	49% 1139-1176 (2315)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 53¢	$298.39	$309.65	+$11.26	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 51.6¢	$224.97	$232.94	+$7.97	58% 28255-20837 (49092)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.6¢	$145.4	$155.1	+$9.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$79.57	$77.84	-$1.73
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 45.7¢	$6.85	$6.75	-$0.17	47% 2177-2478 (4655)

rabbitfoot1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$13,366.92

Value

$13.0K

PnL

-$428.82

Record

53%

1123-985 (2108)

Both legs:

Over$7,900.1648.3¢-$628.37

Under$5,466.7653.5¢+$199.55

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,110.31

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$52.27

Record

50%

24694-24376 (49070)

Both legs:

Under$3,193.3252.7¢+$141.01

Over$1,916.9946.7¢-$88.74

ComingBack

Over

Invested

$1,000.04

Value

$978.3

PnL

-$21.74

Record

61%

3900-2449 (6349)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$2,155.93

Value

$665.94

PnL

+$40

Record

58%

41239-29904 (71143)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$640.87

Value

$660.15

PnL

+$22.02

Record

55%

6994-5612 (12606)

Both legs:

Over$36445.5¢-$4

Under$276.8750.7¢+$26.02

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$469.2

Value

$506

PnL

+$41.4

Record

49%

1139-1176 (2315)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$298.39

Value

$309.65

PnL

+$11.26

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$224.97

Value

$232.94

PnL

+$7.97

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

Both legs:

Under$145.451.6¢+$9.7

Over$79.5746¢-$1.73

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$0.17

Record

47%

2177-2478 (4655)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.