Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (100%) · Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club at 95¢ · $770 held · ended Oct 29
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Neutral
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club
3
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 100%
$770.45
$228.24
69.9¢ → 95¢
+36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Qadisiyah Saudi Club at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greed | Al Qadisiyah Saudi Clubavg 69.7¢ | $554.38 | $755.97 | +$225.47 | 59% 2545-1765 (4310) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Al Qadisiyah Saudi Clubavg 94¢ | $9.4 | $9.5 | +$0.4 | 73% 1529-553 (2082) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Al Qadisiyah Saudi Clubavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $4.97 | +$2.37 | 47% 2189-2483 (4672) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.