Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 5.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 82¢ · $608 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$607.92
-$10.45
83.5¢ → 82¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 83¢ | $415.6 | $410 | -$4.9 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 84.4¢ | $187.41 | $182.04 | -$5.37 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 85.5¢ | $8.55 | $12.3 | -$0.5 | 47% 2177-2478 (4655) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $3.16 | $3.58 | +$0.32 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$415.6
Value
$410
PnL
-$4.9
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$187.41
Value
$182.04
PnL
-$5.37
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$8.55
Value
$12.3
PnL
-$0.5
Record
47%
2177-2478 (4655)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.16
Value
$3.58
PnL
+$0.32
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.