Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 4.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 76¢ · $223 held · ends Oct 29

Over25¢Under75¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$223.28

Combined PnL

$3.66

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$132.63

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$4.64

Over4 traders

Total Value$90.65

Total Shares318

Combined PnL+$8.3

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 74¢	$137.27	$132.63	-$4.64	58% 41203-29875 (71078)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$70.33	$77.09	+$6.76	59% 45090-31481 (76571)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$10	$11.4	+$1.4	50% 24686-24362 (49048)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.42	+$0.07	47% 2160-2464 (4624)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$0.67	$0.73	+$0.06	49% 12392-12709 (25101)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$137.27

Value

$132.63

PnL

-$4.64

Record

58%

41203-29875 (71078)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.33

Value

$77.09

PnL

+$6.76

Record

59%

45090-31481 (76571)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

24686-24362 (49048)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

2160-2464 (4624)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

12392-12709 (25101)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.