Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 50¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 29

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$18.7K

Combined PnL

-$124.33

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 50¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares24,618

Combined PnL+$23.37

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares12,025

Combined PnL-$147.71

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Overavg 53.9¢	$11.6K	$11.4K	-$77.16	53% 1123-985 (2108)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 46¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$25.61	50% 2484-2470 (4954)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 49.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$76.01	50% 24694-24376 (49070)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 46.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$21	54% 4826-4065 (8891)
ComingBack	Underavg 54¢	$1.0K	$851.85	-$101.85	61% 3900-2449 (6349)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51.7¢	$1.2K	$705.05	-$59.99	58% 41239-29904 (71143)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 49.7¢	$366.77	$391.43	+$24.66	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 47.5¢	$309.92	$306.45	-$3.47	58% 28255-20837 (49092)
0xheavy888	Underavg 51.3¢	$308	$282	-$29	55% 6994-5612 (12606)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.65	-$0.13	47% 2177-2478 (4655)

rabbitfoot1

Over

Invested

$11,575.29

Value

$11.4K

PnL

-$77.16

Record

53%

1123-985 (2108)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$2,355.78

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$25.61

Record

50%

2484-2470 (4954)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,186.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$76.01

Record

50%

24694-24376 (49070)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$21

Record

54%

4826-4065 (8891)

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$851.85

PnL

-$101.85

Record

61%

3900-2449 (6349)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,235.03

Value

$705.05

PnL

-$59.99

Record

58%

41239-29904 (71143)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$366.77

Value

$391.43

PnL

+$24.66

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$309.92

Value

$306.45

PnL

-$3.47

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$308

Value

$282

PnL

-$29

Record

55%

6994-5612 (12606)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

2177-2478 (4655)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.