Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 50¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$23.0K
$1.2K
90¢ → 50¢
-44% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thetesterguy | Overavg 90¢ | $21.4K | $21.6K | +$216.35 | 95% 53-3 (56) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 12.2¢ | $301.59 | $1.2K | +$937.43 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 12¢ | $29.8 | $124.18 | +$94.38 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $13.58 | $14 | +$0.42 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $1.3 | $5 | -$0.3 | 47% 2177-2478 (4655) |
Invested
$21,415.48
Value
$21.6K
PnL
+$216.35
Record
95%
53-3 (56)
VeryLucky888Invested
$301.59
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$937.43
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$29.8
Value
$124.18
PnL
+$94.38
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.58
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.42
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
47%
2177-2478 (4655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.