Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Al Nassr Saudi Club, while the market favors Al Kholood Saudi Club (70%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Al Nassr Saudi Club (50%) · Al Nassr Saudi Club at 31¢ · $464 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Al Nassr Saudi Club
6
Al Nassr Saudi Club 50%
$463.92
$28.38
32¢ → 30.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Nassr Saudi Club at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Al Kholood Saudi Club 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Al Nassr Saudi Clubavg 32¢ | $158.04 | $185.21 | +$27.16 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
 0xheavy888 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 69¢ | $138 | $139 | +$1 | 55% 6990-5610 (12600) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Al Nassr Saudi Clubavg 31.9¢ | $129.44 | $127.65 | -$1.79 | 59% 45093-31481 (76574) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 64.5¢ | $6.45 | $6.25 | -$0.2 | 47% 2162-2466 (4628) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Al Nassr Saudi Clubavg 34.6¢ | $2.95 | $3.2 | +$0.25 | 52% 3686-3349 (7035) |
 VeryLucky888 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 63¢ | $199.86 | $2.6 | +$1.95 | 58% 41209-29876 (71085) |
Invested
$158.04
Value
$185.21
PnL
+$27.16
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
0xheavy888Invested
$138
Value
$139
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
6990-5610 (12600)
Invested
$129.44
Value
$127.65
PnL
-$1.79
Record
59%
45093-31481 (76574)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$6.25
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
2162-2466 (4628)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.95
Value
$3.2
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
3686-3349 (7035)
VeryLucky888Invested
$199.86
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$1.95
Record
58%
41209-29876 (71085)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.