Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Al Kholood Saudi Club, while the market favors Al Nassr Saudi Club (61%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5)
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Al Kholood Saudi Club (50%) · Al Kholood Saudi Club at 39¢ · $589 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Al Kholood Saudi Club
2
Al Kholood Saudi Club 50%
1 arb excluded
$588.59
-$5.82
Research grade
NeutralAl Kholood Saudi Club at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Al Nassr Saudi Club 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MY myxiCTR | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 39¢ | $476.97 | $476.97 | -$6.12 | 68% 350-165 (515) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Al Nassr Saudi Clubavg 61.5¢ | $102.19 | $101.61 | -$0.58 | 55% 6994-5612 (12606) |
| └ Al Nassr Saudi Club leg | Al Nassr Saudi Clubavg 61.5¢ | $57.19 | $56.77 | +$0 | |
| └ Al Kholood Saudi Club leg | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 42¢ | $48.3 | $44.85 | -$0.58 | |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Al Nassr Saudi Clubavg 57¢ | $9.7 | $10 | +$0.3 | 47% 2177-2478 (4655) |
Invested
$476.97
Value
$476.97
PnL
-$6.12
Record
68%
350-165 (515)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$102.19
Value
$101.61
PnL
-$0.58
Record
55%
6994-5612 (12606)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.3
Record
47%
2177-2478 (4655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.