Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-10-29?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 14%
$1.3K
-$3.91
Research grade
NeutralYes at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816 | Yesavg 80¢ | $1.0K | $993.75 | -$6.25 | 70% 333-142 (475) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 20¢ | $1.1K | $205.01 | +$5.75 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $46 | $44.85 | -$1.15 | 50% 24602-24271 (48873) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $29.23 | $27.14 | -$2.09 | 59% 44951-31350 (76301) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.8¢ | $19.92 | $19.69 | -$0.23 | 53% 3488-3134 (6622) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $7.5 | $7.69 | +$0.19 | 53% 15822-14001 (29823) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $5 | $4.88 | -$0.13 | 47% 2131-2421 (4552) |
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816Invested
$1,000
Value
$993.75
PnL
-$6.25
Record
70%
333-142 (475)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,100.77
Value
$205.01
PnL
+$5.75
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
Invested
$46
Value
$44.85
PnL
-$1.15
Record
50%
24602-24271 (48873)
Invested
$29.23
Value
$27.14
PnL
-$2.09
Record
59%
44951-31350 (76301)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.69
PnL
-$0.23
Record
53%
3488-3134 (6622)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.69
PnL
+$0.19
Record
53%
15822-14001 (29823)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.88
PnL
-$0.13
Record
47%
2131-2421 (4552)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.