Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-10-29?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 92¢ · $150 held · ends Oct 29

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$150.25

Combined PnL

-$3.87

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 92¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$108.46

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$1.76

Yes3 traders

Total Value$41.78

Total Shares643

Combined PnL-$5.64

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae	Noavg 92¢	$104.48	$106.18	+$1.7	53% 15822-14001 (29823)
EF 0xefde...6505CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$26.64	$24.74	-$1.9	—
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$19.37	$15.74	-$3.63	59% 44951-31350 (76301)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 91¢	$2.22	$2.29	+$0.06	50% 32976-32521 (65497)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.4	$1.3	-$0.1	47% 2131-2421 (4552)

Cannae

Invested

$104.48

Value

$106.18

PnL

+$1.7

Record

53%

15822-14001 (29823)

0xefde...6505CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.64

Value

$24.74

PnL

-$1.9

Record

—

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.37

Value

$15.74

PnL

-$3.63

Record

59%

44951-31350 (76301)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.29

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

32976-32521 (65497)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

2131-2421 (4552)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.