Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
$20.92
86.7¢ → 86.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $503.23 | $395.63 | +$8.83 | 58% 41209-29876 (71085) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $331.13 | $339.46 | +$8.33 | 59% 45093-31481 (76574) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 86¢ | $172 | $173 | +$1 | 55% 6990-5610 (12600) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 87¢ | $158.63 | $161.36 | +$2.73 | 53% 15855-14033 (29888) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $12.94 | $12.96 | +$0.02 | 52% 3686-3349 (7035) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$503.23
Value
$395.63
PnL
+$8.83
Record
58%
41209-29876 (71085)
Invested
$331.13
Value
$339.46
PnL
+$8.33
Record
59%
45093-31481 (76574)
0xheavy888Invested
$172
Value
$173
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
6990-5610 (12600)
Invested
$158.63
Value
$161.36
PnL
+$2.73
Record
53%
15855-14033 (29888)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.94
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
3686-3349 (7035)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.