Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Al Khaleej Saudi Club, while the market favors Al Kholood Saudi Club (52%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-1.5)
7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Al Khaleej Saudi Club (54%) · Al Khaleej Saudi Club at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Al Khaleej Saudi Club
13
Al Khaleej Saudi Club 54%
$2.8K
$168.64
40.9¢ → 48.5¢
+19% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Khaleej Saudi Club at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Al Kholood Saudi Club 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
54% of non-arb traders are on Al Khaleej Saudi Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 52.4¢ | $815.74 | $810.16 | -$13.37 | 47% 11679-13371 (25050) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 40¢ | $582.63 | $706.92 | +$124.29 | 83% 89-18 (107) |
DI dips.CTR | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 48.9¢ | $611.21 | $587.5 | -$23.71 | 47% 10620-12131 (22751) |
FO forecastication4 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 55.6¢ | $353.86 | $330.72 | -$23.14 | 50% 1380-1390 (2770) |
LO lovefieldCTR | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 20¢ | $81.52 | $191.56 | +$110.05 | — |
 poshposh<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 63.2¢ | $59.21 | $48.74 | -$10.48 | 57% 12687-9752 (22439) |
 alpheclabs2<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 53¢ | $80 | $41.2 | -$1.2 | 47% 1222-1396 (2618) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 35¢ | $26.25 | $39 | +$12.75 | 19% 2850-12163 (15013) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Club | $18.33 | $18.33 | +$0 | 59% 825-584 (1409) |
US User7429<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 81.7¢ | $24.46 | $15.56 | -$8.9 | 56% 9103-7250 (16353) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 36¢ | $2.81 | $3.79 | +$0.98 | 74% 111-38 (149) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 36¢ | $2.81 | $3.67 | +$0.9 | 67% 27386-13744 (41130) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 33¢ | $1.1 | $1.56 | +$0.46 | 67% 542-266 (808) |
Invested
$815.74
Value
$810.16
PnL
-$13.37
Record
47%
11679-13371 (25050)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTRInvested
$582.63
Value
$706.92
PnL
+$124.29
Record
83%
89-18 (107)
Invested
$611.21
Value
$587.5
PnL
-$23.71
Record
47%
10620-12131 (22751)
Invested
$353.86
Value
$330.72
PnL
-$23.14
Record
50%
1380-1390 (2770)
Invested
$81.52
Value
$191.56
PnL
+$110.05
Record
—
poshposh<$100Invested
$59.21
Value
$48.74
PnL
-$10.48
Record
57%
12687-9752 (22439)
alpheclabs2<$100Invested
$80
Value
$41.2
PnL
-$1.2
Record
47%
1222-1396 (2618)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$26.25
Value
$39
PnL
+$12.75
Record
19%
2850-12163 (15013)
Invested
$18.33
Value
$18.33
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
825-584 (1409)
Invested
$24.46
Value
$15.56
PnL
-$8.9
Record
56%
9103-7250 (16353)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$3.79
PnL
+$0.98
Record
74%
111-38 (149)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$3.67
PnL
+$0.9
Record
67%
27386-13744 (41130)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.56
PnL
+$0.46
Record
67%
542-266 (808)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
topdogbigboi
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $810.16
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $706.92
dips.
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $587.5
forecastication4
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $330.72
lovefield
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $191.56
poshposh
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $48.74
alpheclabs2
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $41.2
LornaPredicts
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $39
hithitfar
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $18.33
User7429
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $15.56