Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 98¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 5

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 98.3¢

+43% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares13,310

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$38.13

Total Shares8,153

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 88.8¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$362.99	43% 3085-4124 (7209)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 6.9¢	$224.04	$3.3K	+$3.0K	38% 947-1564 (2511)
DI dips.	Noavg 85.9¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$460.89	47% 9999-11330 (21329)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 94.7¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	+$110.44	60% 11480-7595 (19075)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 84.4¢	$811.09	$935.05	+$123.96	54% 22028-19125 (41153)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 87.2¢	$251.46	$70.54	-$0.01	40% 1008-1505 (2513)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 76¢	$41.04	$53.84	+$12.8	44% 6174-7914 (14088)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 90.9¢	$230.2	$36.71	+$3.24	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 90.3¢	$318.13	$15.12	+$0.03	40% 980-1494 (2474)
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$13	$13.63	+$0.63	60% 905-591 (1496)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 11.4¢	$283.67	$9.98	-$273.7	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$12.29	$7.15	-$5.14	18% 4199-19783 (23982)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 19.4¢	$582.93	$6.95	-$290.61	58% 44584-32454 (77038)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 94¢	$5.36	$5.68	+$0.32	39% 5309-8313 (13622)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$181.01	$5	-$164.14	63% 710-409 (1119)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 19.2¢	$183.75	$3.83	-$179.92	50% 20158-20505 (40663)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$95.76	$3	-$92.76	69% 504-222 (726)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 99.7¢	$185.74	$2.05	-$52	52% 6119-5644 (11763)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$1.95	$1.95	-$157.72	73% 13376-5006 (18382)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$3.41	$0.22	-$3.19	50% 1333-1345 (2678)
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.5	$0.05	-$1.45	52% 2662-2421 (5083)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$3,527.55

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$362.99

Record

43%

3085-4124 (7209)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$224.04

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

38%

947-1564 (2511)

dips.

Invested

$2,867.31

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$460.89

Record

47%

9999-11330 (21329)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$2,621.03

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$110.44

Record

60%

11480-7595 (19075)

cigarettes

Invested

$811.09

Value

$935.05

PnL

+$123.96

Record

54%

22028-19125 (41153)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$251.46

Value

$70.54

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

1008-1505 (2513)

korda77<$100

Invested

$41.04

Value

$53.84

PnL

+$12.8

Record

44%

6174-7914 (14088)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$230.2

Value

$36.71

PnL

+$3.24

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$318.13

Value

$15.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

40%

980-1494 (2474)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$0.63

Record

60%

905-591 (1496)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$283.67

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$273.7

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.29

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$5.14

Record

18%

4199-19783 (23982)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$582.93

Value

$6.95

PnL

-$290.61

Record

58%

44584-32454 (77038)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$5.36

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.32

Record

39%

5309-8313 (13622)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

PnL

-$164.14

Record

63%

710-409 (1119)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$183.75

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$179.92

Record

50%

20158-20505 (40663)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR

Yes

Invested

$95.76

Value

PnL

-$92.76

Record

69%

504-222 (726)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$185.74

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$52

Record

52%

6119-5644 (11763)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$157.72

Record

73%

13376-5006 (18382)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.41

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$3.19

Record

50%

1333-1345 (2678)

lavendergoomsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.45

Record

52%

2662-2421 (5083)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.