Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (90%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: Neither team to score first?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 10¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 50%
$1.6K
$533.92
61.3¢ → 10.2¢
-83% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
59h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E4 e46m3 | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $102.66 | $1.2K | +$571.83 | 67% 27476-13829 (41305) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70 | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $34.29 | $304.28 | +$269.99 | 74% 111-38 (149) |
DI dips. | Yesavg 92.4¢ | $107.85 | $104.77 | -$2.93 | 47% 10628-12140 (22768) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 90¢ | $270 | $30.75 | -$239.25 | 58% 46700-33657 (80357) |
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $90.5 | $20.87 | -$69.64 | 62% 777-469 (1246) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.1¢ | $5.72 | $9.64 | +$3.92 | 19% 2872-12252 (15124) |
Invested
$102.66
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$571.83
Record
67%
27476-13829 (41305)
Invested
$34.29
Value
$304.28
PnL
+$269.99
Record
74%
111-38 (149)
Invested
$107.85
Value
$104.77
PnL
-$2.93
Record
47%
10628-12140 (22768)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$270
Value
$30.75
PnL
-$239.25
Record
58%
46700-33657 (80357)
Invested
$90.5
Value
$20.87
PnL
-$69.64
Record
62%
777-469 (1246)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.72
Value
$9.64
PnL
+$3.92
Record
19%
2872-12252 (15124)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.