Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 61¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.6K
$50.82
71.2¢ → 61¢
-14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 73.6¢ | $768.38 | $793.16 | +$24.78 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 68.1¢ | $762.47 | $455.23 | +$37.76 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 69.5¢ | $278 | $286 | +$8 | 55% 6990-5610 (12600) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 31.4¢ | $115.21 | $95.49 | -$19.73 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 68.5¢ | $6.85 | $6.85 | +$0 | 47% 2163-2470 (4633) |
Invested
$768.38
Value
$793.16
PnL
+$24.78
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
VeryLucky888Invested
$762.47
Value
$455.23
PnL
+$37.76
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
0xheavy888Invested
$278
Value
$286
PnL
+$8
Record
55%
6990-5610 (12600)
Invested
$115.21
Value
$95.49
PnL
-$19.73
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$6.85
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2163-2470 (4633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.