Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Al Khaleej Saudi Club (40%) · Al Khaleej Saudi Club at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Al Khaleej Saudi Club
5
Al Khaleej Saudi Club 40%
$1.6K
$17.5
90.8¢ → 99.9¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Khaleej Saudi Club at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 91¢ | $1.1K | $989.58 | -$136.07 | 50% 6900-6893 (13793) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 90¢ | $398.34 | $474.08 | +$75.74 | 50% 24686-24363 (49049) |
CA CannaeCTR | Al Hazem SCavg 9¢ | $50.09 | $111.31 | +$61.22 | 53% 15855-14037 (29892) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Al Hazem SCavg 10.8¢ | $18.17 | $33.75 | +$15.58 | 59% 45098-31483 (76581) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Al Hazem SCavg 10¢ | $1.03 | $2.06 | +$1.03 | 52% 3691-3354 (7045) |
Invested
$1,125.65
Value
$989.58
PnL
-$136.07
Record
50%
6900-6893 (13793)
Invested
$398.34
Value
$474.08
PnL
+$75.74
Record
50%
24686-24363 (49049)
Invested
$50.09
Value
$111.31
PnL
+$61.22
Record
53%
15855-14037 (29892)
Invested
$18.17
Value
$33.75
PnL
+$15.58
Record
59%
45098-31483 (76581)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.03
Value
$2.06
PnL
+$1.03
Record
52%
3691-3354 (7045)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.