Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-10-29?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 52¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.7K
$0.28
51.5¢ → 52¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 51.5¢ | $996 | $995.62 | -$0.38 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 51¢ | $326.8 | $330 | +$3.2 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 52¢ | $243.36 | $238.68 | -$2.34 | 53% 15855-14037 (29892) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $55.67 | $56.53 | +$0.87 | 49% 12393-12710 (25103) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $57.6 | $56.4 | -$1.2 | 50% 6899-6893 (13792) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.35 | +$0.13 | 47% 2163-2470 (4633) |
Invested
$996
Value
$995.62
PnL
-$0.38
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
Invested
$326.8
Value
$330
PnL
+$3.2
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$243.36
Value
$238.68
PnL
-$2.34
Record
53%
15855-14037 (29892)
Invested
$55.67
Value
$56.53
PnL
+$0.87
Record
49%
12393-12710 (25103)
Invested
$57.6
Value
$56.4
PnL
-$1.2
Record
50%
6899-6893 (13792)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.13
Record
47%
2163-2470 (4633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.