Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-10-29?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$284.8

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 99.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,329

Combined PnL-$74.54

Yes6 traders

Total Value$398.21

Total Shares7,186

Combined PnL-$210.25

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 98¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	-$27.5	93% 826-61 (887)
oieshfn345	Noavg 69.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$62.38	57% 1660-1239 (2899)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 87¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$384.79	50% 24686-24363 (49049)
└ No leg	Noavg 87¢	$977.91	$887.99	-$89.92
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.8¢	$623.38	$328.51	-$294.87
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$408.42	$307.92	-$6.38	58% 41218-29884 (71102)
RN1	Noavg 43¢	$289.2	$304.93	+$15.74	54% 56032-48155 (104187)
PA pauleta23CTR	Yesavg 57¢	$100	$43.86	-$56.14	67% 23205-11605 (34810)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$185.34	$38.76	-$146.58	59% 45098-31483 (76581)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.5¢	$7.25	$5.85	-$1.4	54% 6133-5209 (11342)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 81¢	$5.68	$5.78	+$0.1	52% 3691-3354 (7045)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 76¢	$5.5	$5	-$0.5	58% 18495-13582 (32077)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.25	-$0.05	47% 2164-2475 (4639)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.27	$0.57	+$0.3	49% 12395-12710 (25105)

Momo63

Invested

$5,390

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$27.5

Record

93%

826-61 (887)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,293.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$62.38

Record

57%

1660-1239 (2899)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,601.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$384.79

Record

50%

24686-24363 (49049)

Both legs:

No$977.9187¢-$89.92

Yes$623.3839.8¢-$294.87

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$408.42

Value

$307.92

PnL

-$6.38

Record

58%

41218-29884 (71102)

RN1

Invested

$289.2

Value

$304.93

PnL

+$15.74

Record

54%

56032-48155 (104187)

pauleta23CTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$43.86

PnL

-$56.14

Record

67%

23205-11605 (34810)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$185.34

Value

$38.76

PnL

-$146.58

Record

59%

45098-31483 (76581)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.25

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$1.4

Record

54%

6133-5209 (11342)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.68

Value

$5.78

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

3691-3354 (7045)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

18495-13582 (32077)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

2164-2475 (4639)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

12395-12710 (25105)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.