Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC end in a draw?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$22.93
74.9¢ → 98¢
+31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 59.1¢ | $538.34 | $598.81 | +$60.47 | 57% 1660-1239 (2899) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.1¢ | $354.7 | $308.92 | -$45.78 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $183.64 | $289.88 | +$106.24 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71¢ | $244.83 | $255.17 | +$10.34 | 50% 24686-24363 (49049) |
 RN1 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $166.03 | $180.31 | +$14.28 | 54% 56032-48155 (104187) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $37.74 | $37.74 | +$0 | 50% 6900-6893 (13793) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $27.04 | $27.41 | +$0.37 | 55% 6990-5611 (12601) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 66.6¢ | $12.04 | $11.48 | -$0.56 | 54% 6133-5209 (11342) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $6.97 | $5.33 | -$1.64 | 59% 45098-31483 (76581) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.52 | $0.65 | +$0.13 | 50% 33056-32626 (65682) |
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$538.34
Value
$598.81
PnL
+$60.47
Record
57%
1660-1239 (2899)
Both legs:
Invested
$244.83
Value
$255.17
PnL
+$10.34
Record
50%
24686-24363 (49049)
RN1Invested
$166.03
Value
$180.31
PnL
+$14.28
Record
54%
56032-48155 (104187)
Invested
$37.74
Value
$37.74
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
6900-6893 (13793)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$27.04
Value
$27.41
PnL
+$0.37
Record
55%
6990-5611 (12601)
Invested
$12.04
Value
$11.48
PnL
-$0.56
Record
54%
6133-5209 (11342)
Invested
$6.97
Value
$5.33
PnL
-$1.64
Record
59%
45098-31483 (76581)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.65
PnL
+$0.13
Record
50%
33056-32626 (65682)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.