Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 37¢ · $768 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$768.1
-$26.99
44.1¢ → 36.5¢
-17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 45.7¢ | $350.6 | $360.96 | +$10.36 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 42.4¢ | $257.99 | $205.23 | -$40.16 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
PU purplegatto | Yesavg 56.1¢ | $149.24 | $150.2 | +$0.96 | 50% 5808-5912 (11720) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $38.61 | $39.99 | +$1.38 | 49% 18818-19217 (38035) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $7.79 | $8.27 | +$0.48 | 49% 12393-12710 (25103) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $3.45 | $3.45 | -$0 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
Invested
$350.6
Value
$360.96
PnL
+$10.36
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$257.99
Value
$205.23
PnL
-$40.16
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$149.24
Value
$150.2
PnL
+$0.96
Record
50%
5808-5912 (11720)
Invested
$38.61
Value
$39.99
PnL
+$1.38
Record
49%
18818-19217 (38035)
Invested
$7.79
Value
$8.27
PnL
+$0.48
Record
49%
12393-12710 (25103)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.