Will NEOM SC win on 2026-11-06?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 6

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 96.2¢

+92% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,344

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$67.92

Total Shares3,774

Combined PnL-$218.78

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 0.9¢	$21.58	$2.5K	+$2.5K	39% 1003-1586 (2589)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 95.9¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$104.9	43% 3100-4146 (7246)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 92.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$68.72	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
ME merod	Noavg 89.3¢	$342.82	$312.85	+$32.51	42% 2956-4064 (7020)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$62.95	$60.23	+$0.02	38% 997-1606 (2603)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 90.4¢	$220.71	$36.16	+$3.32	55% 4365-3560 (7925)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 11.4¢	$181.01	$28.48	-$161.23	63% 712-411 (1123)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$47.64	$17.44	-$30.2	48% 57267-60865 (118132)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$40.27	$16.1	-$24.17	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$9.08	$5.9	-$3.18	20% 2535-10042 (12577)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$21.58

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

39%

1003-1586 (2589)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,531.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$104.9

Record

43%

3100-4146 (7246)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$1,130.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$68.72

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

merod

Invested

$342.82

Value

$312.85

PnL

+$32.51

Record

42%

2956-4064 (7020)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$62.95

Value

$60.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$220.71

Value

$36.16

PnL

+$3.32

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

$28.48

PnL

-$161.23

Record

63%

712-411 (1123)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.64

Value

$17.44

PnL

-$30.2

Record

48%

57267-60865 (118132)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.27

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$24.17

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.08

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$3.18

Record

20%

2535-10042 (12577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.