Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 5.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Over35¢Under65¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$137.8

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 65.5¢

-14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,251

Combined PnL+$1.35

Over3 traders

Total Value$522.97

Total Shares1,565

Combined PnL+$136.45

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 76.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$12.64	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 24.7¢	$360.42	$495.25	+$134.83	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
0xheavy888	Underavg 76.9¢	$328.93	$320.66	-$10.41	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 76¢	$41.04	$40.23	-$0.81	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$13.68	$13.95	+$0.27	50% 33443-33004 (66447)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$12.42	$13.77	+$1.35	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.73	-$0.07	48% 2404-2633 (5037)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,345.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$12.64

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$360.42

Value

$495.25

PnL

+$134.83

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$328.93

Value

$320.66

PnL

-$10.41

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$41.04

Value

$40.23

PnL

-$0.81

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.68

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.42

Value

$13.77

PnL

+$1.35

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.